Value/Pricing 2018 340i ZHP / 6MT

[Lightngsvt]

I have a 2018 340i M-Sport with the rare ZHP pkg. I leased the car and the lease is up in 2 months, now I need to decide what to do. Do I keep it, turn it in, try to sell it? It seems either the ZHP has no value, or almost no one in the mainstream knows what the car is because current trade in value seems be between $30-32k, where the lease buyout is $37k. Another issue is I still want a manual trans daily driver, and the only new cars that I'd actually be interested in are the M3/M4, Ford Mustang, Cadillac CT4 Blackwing, Ford Bronco, possibly the new Nissan Z but not sure I want a 2-seater for a dd.

The car is white over red leather, has about 37k miles, 100% stock and dealer serviced, has nav/hud/heated seats/comfort access/etc. Its a daily driver but is always garage kept at home. Any ideas what this car is worth on a private sale?

[dworthy]

In today's crazy used car market, 32k-35k would be about right if the car is clean with no issues. The other issue is you will have a hard time finding a manual transmission in any car today as the manual is dead and only about 5% of cars produced get one.

So when it comes to leasing a car, you do end up with the short end of the stick in a way if you want to buy it out. Of course you could roll the dice and see what the dealer slaps on the window once you turn the car in.

[Lightngsvt]

Wow, so you think it'd be worth even less if the markets were normal? I've read the new M2 will be out in 23 w/a manual and starting at $60k. I can swing that, and its at least $12k less than the d4 sealers are trying to get me to order now.

I could buy the car out and gamble that in 18 months I could get out of it break even, or better. I would only do 48, maybe 60 mo loan. Maybe I could wait and order a 24 M2 that'd give me at least 2 years? Or like you said just wait and see if the dealer retails it for less, but that leaves me without a car for the short term as my other cars arent daily drivers. I bet if this was X3 M40i instead of a 340i M-sport sedan I'd have no problems getting out on top! Sad!

[RBNetEngr]

With few exceptions, you don’t buy a new(er) car and expect to not lose money. The market economics for cars just don’t work that way.

The current car price craze is the result of COVID restrictions closing the vehicle manufacturing and parts manufacturing industries, chip shortages that limited the number of cars built, and a bad sales market in 2020. Things will improve, and when they do, I predict that the vehicles which have been selling at a premium for the past 18 months or so will plummet in value when the market sectors become more normal.


-rb

[MPWERe36]

@Lightngsvt, let me know what you end up doing with your car. If you are looking to sell, I might be interested.