BMW 2-Series Reliability - better info

[mkaresh]

I wanted more up-to-date car reliability information that made the differences between cars clearer. So a few years ago I started getting people together to make this possible. TrueDelta now updates actual repair frequencies, not just dots, four times a year, to track cars closely as they age.

Thanks partly to the support of this forum (for which I'm very grateful), we've been providing stats on many BMW models. I'd like to do the same for the 2-Series. Just a matter of getting enough owners involved.

Participants report repairs the month after they occur on a one-page survey. When there are no repairs, they simply report an approximate odometer reading four times a year, following the end of each quarter.

To encourage participation, participants receive full access to all results, not just those for the 2-Series, for free. I'll share results for the 2-Series in in this thread after each update.

http://www.truedelta.com/join

[uberSteuer]

Sounds like a great business idea for a website. Make your users provide all the data and you collect ad revenue.

[mkaresh]

Members put in a couple minutes a quarter. I put in 60 hours a week. It does seem terribly unfair, doesn't it?

[Pyewacket69]

Sounds like a great business idea for a website. Make your users provide all the data and you collect ad revenue.

Seems all voluntary to me. Participate or not, it's a personal choice...

[BimmerBreaker]

My biggest thing with this is that as far as I can tell its only collecting information from enthusiasts which will obviously skew the data quite tremendously.

Not to mention they only collect information from white people apparently:

[mkaresh]

I've been ticked off about that image ever since the designer provided it. Not just all white. They all seem to have an attitude. The designer originally found a much better image, then learned at the last minute that rights to it would be $$$. When I requested that he find a better, inexpensive image, he told me I was picking nits, beyond the scope, etc. Anyone who has worked with a designer can imagine the dialogue. Hopefully this image won't be around much longer, but always bigger fish to fry.

As for everyone being enthusiasts, we don't only get members from forums. Most people find the site through organic search. Others learn of it through word-of-mouth. And if you check out the reported repairs (they're all posted to the site) it will be obvious that the great majority of them equally affect enthusiasts and non-enthusiasts. With the 1, for example, the most commonly reported problems involved the tail lights.

[Pyewacket69]

My biggest thing with this is that as far as I can tell its only collecting information from enthusiasts which will obviously skew the data quite tremendously. :

That's always a possibility...

One can even make a very good argument that Consumer Union (Consumer Reports) suffers from the same ailment, since they only collect information from subscribers, which may (or may not) represent the general population.

My view is that all of these things are pieces of a larger puzzle, and one should use them accordingly when making purchasing decisions.

[NY Scotsman]

Even if there is a bias it would tend to be towards more engaged and involved owners. Not a bad thing from a data quality perspective.
Also as these sites are mostly used by people making car purchase decisions and doing comparative analysis between cars on the site the bias is unimportant as it should be relatively constant over that site.
Keep up the good work mkaresh!

[BimmerBreaker]

As for everyone being enthusiasts, we don't only get members from forums. Most people find the site through organic search. Others learn of it through word-of-mouth. And if you check out the reported repairs (they're all posted to the site) it will be obvious that the great majority of them equally affect enthusiasts and non-enthusiasts. With the 1, for example, the most commonly reported problems involved the tail lights.

Yes but still the fact holds that those reporting these statistics will be of a certain, contained demographic. It may be a wider demographic than immediately visible, but I personally would still be very hesitant to put a lot of weight in the results there. Its a good thing you are doing - though if this is a money-generating venture, that changes everything...

That's always a possibility...

One can even make a very good argument that Consumer Union (Consumer Reports) suffers from the same ailment, since they only collect information from subscribers, which may (or may not) represent the general population.

My view is that all of these things are pieces of a larger puzzle, and one should use them accordingly when making purchasing decisions.

Agree on all that. I wasn't trying to say its better or worse than any other similar service but just that the problem ultimately with all of these is the limited userbase. I always thought Carfax would be smart to use their ins at various dealerships to get info on service repairs as they occur while also reaching out to indy shops and etc. The problem there and probably why this hasn't happened is because the dealer has no incentive to prove the cars they are selling are unreliable.

I guess my problem with gathering data from a more biased enthusiast is just that... the bias. We don't want out cars to be viewed as unreliable, so maybe we will report the 2-3 little things that happened, but we will say "my engine blew up because I did something" and not report something just because we dont want to tarnish our favorite brand's image. I'm sure it doesn't happen a lot, but I'm sure it happens a little. There may also be an aspect of "Well every BMW needs this, so its not out of the usual, I wont mention it" whereas a Honda owner may report every single air filter change as a repair. The problem as I see it ultimately comes from asking people themselves to submit the data. It would be more effective to actually go gather the data so you can at least pick relevant sample sizes - if 10% of owners are enthusiasts, then 10% of the data you gather can be from enthusiasts too, instead of say 50% here which is being extrapolated disproportionately. But of course then the difficulty is how do you go gather that sort of data? Its of course easier to have them bring the data to you but as touched on above, that comes with it's own can of worms.

I don't have a better solution that is feasible right now and I do appreciate the service, but just wanted to put this out there.

[Pyewacket69]

I'd say that, short of a double-blind research study, just about every form of data collection is subject to bias issues of some sort.

Like everything else in life, the true accuracy/usefulness value of any data analysis is directly correlated to the cost of the collection process.

[mkaresh]

This is the absolute best research that can be conducted for the amount of money the car buying public is willing to pay

I've been doing this for nearly a decade. If there's a remotely obvious issue that can be controlled for (e.g. reports of air filter changes), it's pretty safe to assume we're handling it. People are often astonished by how thoroughly I go through their responses.

[Pyewacket69]

This is the absolute best research that can be conducted for the amount of money the car buying public is willing to pay I've been doing this for nearly a decade. If there's a remotely obvious issue that can be controlled for (e.g. reports of air filter changes), it's pretty safe to assume we're handling it. People are often astonished by how thorough I go through their responses.

Yes, one can't argue much about the price...

Personally, I think your information is useful.

[mkaresh]

We'll start having stats for the 2015 2-Series in August, though based on a small sample size. The 2014 isn't yet included in the survey, as fewer are signed up.

I'd like to have precise stats for both. To help make this happen:

www.truedelta.com/join

[mkaresh]

We've updated our reliability stats for the 2-Series to include owner experiences through September 30, 2015. Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year:

2014-2015 2-Series: 26, low

For the details, including repair descriptions, and to sign up to help improve this information:

BMW 2-Series reliability ratings and comparisons